Close But No Cigar Today

If we’d sent the right message with the 6-0 win at Plymouth, that we were gaining momentum at the right time of the season, today we were looking for a statement of intent against one of the two teams going up, to show that we have the quality to match up. Today it didn’t quite happen, for a combination of reasons: we were up against better quality opposition than of late, we failed to convert a penalty, but most tellingly – and similarly to the Ipswich game but in total contrast to the Plymouth match – we regularly couldn’t convert good work and promising positions into clear goalscoring chances, while the quality of our balls in from set pieces was poor all afternoon. The stats show 62% possession but only three shots on target, while the deflected ones – and there were some promising ones in the second half – failed to find the net.

I’d say we were unfortunate to lose but by no means we were robbed, didn’t have enough chances for that. Fact is Peterborough got a goal and, like us at their place when we went ahead, concentrated on holding what they had. They nevertheless had the better chances to extend their lead, even during the second half when we were in their half most of the time. Amos was called on to make the sort of saves that their keeper was not, bar the penalty of course.

With possibly all three of Innis, Maatsen and Washington available again, Adkins did have some decisions to make. He opted to retain the formation that has served us well of late, while making one change, bringing back Inniss, and deciding to partner him with skipper Pearce rather than Famewo, who dropped to the bench. Millar and Jaiyesimi kept their places as the wide men, with Maatsen not making the bench (perhaps still injured) but Morgan retained there, ahead of Shinnie, available to operate wide if needed, while Watson got the nod again ahead of Pratley for the defensive midfield duties. With Aneke and Washington in reserve (no sign of Schwartz) we would have options up front.

It was a pretty even first 10 minutes, we started rather more brightly than in other games of late. Nevertheless, whereas in those games we tended not to concede and to play our way into it, this time we went behind. I actually missed their goal (went to put some laundry in the dryer, came back and we were one down), apparently we were too open at the back and their guy had a shot from the edge of the area that went inside the far post. We were fortunate that it wasn’t 0-2 before 20 minutes were out as this time a ball down the middle caught Inniss rather flat-footed. Their guy was in with only Amos to beat, but the shot wasn’t convincing and Amos managed to get a touch on it to turn it behind for a corner.

We were getting into decent positions, Gilbey got into the box with a one-two but overran it, and we had to wait until the 26th minute for our first actual shot, one from Stockley getting blocked. By that time Jaiyesimi had departed with what looked like a hamstring, Morgan coming on. No change of formation but it did mean a blunting of the outright attacking threat. In that sense it was unfortunate that Maatsen wasn’t on the bench for a real like-for-like.

On the half-hour we had the opportunity to square the game as Forster-Caskey won the ball back and played in through to Gilbey, who was clipped in the box. With Washington not on the pitch, the duties fell to Stockley. He hit it well enough but, like Schwartz’s effort against Oxford, at a good height for a keeper. Their keeper guessed right and made the save. For the rest of the first half we probed without success. Morgan shot over, Millar put in a dangerous cross, we had free kicks (badly underhit), while a poor Purrington clearance almost put Peterborough in only for Watson to make a vital interception.

At the break you felt that we had to do to them what they did to us at their place, stay patient and take the chances when they come to turn it around. There was an issue whether and at what point Adkins might feel obliged to change the formation it we were still chasing the game. But we were playing well enough, Peterborough were looked less threatening than in the early period of the game, just needed to get back on level terms.

Unfortunately the second half became a tale of close but no cigar. Millar, who had struggled early in the game, came into his own and ran them ragged down the left, without ever managing to deliver the killer final ball. Stockley was inches away from crosses, Gilbey made a super run from deep but couldn’t get enough on the final shot (or play in Morgan who was in space). It wasn’t all one-way traffic and it was indicative that one Peterborough move almost saw their lead extended as their guy cut in from the left and with everyone moving that way backheeled it into space for another to run on to. Strong shot was touched over by Amos.

With around 15 minutes left Aneke made his appearance, but given the state of the game it wasn’t Stockley making way but Gilbey, giving us two up front in a switch to 4-4-2. He looked dangerous, a Forster-Caskey shot then one from Millar were both deflected wide, then in the final 10 minutes Washington and Famewo came on, for Inniss and Morgan (unfortunate for him but this gave us the option of another forward threat). Still we couldn’t manage that gilt-edged chance. Although Peterborough were content to run down the clock, in the final moments as we tried to play out and had people committed forward they did hit the post, if that had gone in it would have rubbed salt in the wound. But it mattered not as in truth Peterborough protected their goal well and saw it out.

This game just has to be quickly forgotten and filed under ‘irrelevant’. We now have two games, against Crewe and Accrington, that we simply have to win if we are to get a play-off spot. Get the points, then see where we stand with two to go. On Tuesday, in addition to our game Portsmouth will play at Accrington, Lincoln at Shrewsbury, and Blackpool at Sunderland. Beat Crewe then go again.

Player Ratings:

Amos – 8/10. Once again made saves that kept us in the game.

Matthews – 7/10. Good game defensively, wasn’t able to get forward that much as our threat down the right side changed with Jaiyesimi departing early.

Inniss – 7/10. Mostly did what he does well enough, but we were opened up for their goal and he was involved in another good opportunity for them not long after.

Pearce – 7/10. No complaints, usual committed performance against difficult opponents.

Purrington – 7/10. Unfair to penalise for one poor clearance when otherwise he was good, also linked up well with Millar at the other end.

Watson – 8/10. Thought he was excellent today, breaking up their play and protecting the defence, as well as moving it forward.

Forster-Caskey – 7/10. Some excellent stuff winning possession and using it, performance just spoilt by some poor set pieces.

Gilbey – 7/10. Came close to getting us a point with his well-timed runs, just didn’t quite happen.

Jaiyesimi – 7/10. Only on the pitch for around 20 minutes before leaving injured.

Millar – 7/10. Could easily have been a score of 9 had his final ball, cross, pass, shot been better. So nearly a match-saver/winner but wasn’t.

Stockley – 7/10. Unfair to mark down for the penalty, worked hard and combined well with Aneke.

Subs:

Morgan – 7/10. Not his fault he isn’t an outright winger, contributed to our second-half dominance, no reflection on him that he ended up being subbed to make way for another forward.

Aneke – 7/10. Looked dangerous without getting a clear sight of goal.

Famewo/Washington – Not on long enough for marks.

 

Stats Swing In Our Favour

Wow. In the cold light of day we can regroup. Let’s start with the stats, because some of them are revealing (IMHO). For the first time since the end of 2020 we are in a play-off spot on merit, ie actual and on a points-per-game basis. This has come curtesy of our run of form since the end of February – which has lifted our PPG from 1.419 (projected total of 65) to 1.610 (projected 74) – and three defeats and a draw in the last four for Portsmouth. Didn’t see that coming. I’d been assuming that Lincoln would be our main target, especially if they came back from an enforced Covid-19 break off the pace. But they’ve delivered three straight wins to move if not out of sight for us then close to it, only by virtue of our having to play them. Fair play to them.

Just what’s happened to Portsmouth I’ve no idea. But their loss of form has cut the current projected points total for making sixth to below 72. The benchmark has always been 75, and that may still prove the requirement, but as things stand 72 would get you in. All will change again for sure, but right now we’re looking at facing Lincoln and then beating either Sunderland or Blackpool at Wembley.

I remember writing a post in February suggesting we needed to win every other game until the end of the season to make the play-offs. Despite four points thrown away (the penalty against Oxford, the draw against Wimbledon), which I admit I thought at the time had scuppered us, this is pretty much what we’ve done, plus a bit. Since the start of March our record reads: P10, W6, D4, L0, F18, A7, Pts 22 (ie 2.2 per game). But just as important has been a team in the top six falling away, in this case Portsmouth (Ipswich, Doncaster and others have just about disappeared and Oxford losing last night was reassuring).

 

However it ends up, we are going to look back on this as a very curious season. Our results in March and April carry echoes of the October/November period. Our record for those months reads: P10, W7, D2, L1, F16, A7, Pts 23 points (2.3 ppg). In other words, in two 10-game spells we’ve generated 45 points. The other side of the coin is that in the 23 games outside of these periods our record is: P21, W5, D6, L10, F29, A37, Pts 21 (1.0 ppg). In other words, we have now had two title-winning spells (which if extended over 46 games would have seen us amass 103/104 points) amid relegation form for the rest of the season (46 points).

The reasons for the swings in fortune are many and some do stand out (most obviously that in the poor spell we have conceded an average of 1.76 goals per game against 0.7 for the two good spells). But I don’t think I can remember a season where the divide between the good and the bad has been so acute. We just have to ensure that in the final five games we continue with the good – but a material change last night, although academic, is that we could now afford to win only four of our last five and still be guaranteed a play-off spot.

That of course doesn’t give any real margin for error and we have the momentum at the right time that we have craved since January. Suddenly we have real competition for almost all places – the main exceptions being goalkeeper (no reflection on Maynard-Brewer’s ability and potential but I hope he is not called upon) and centre-forward (we have Stockley and Aneke but assuming they are to be interchangeable in the current formation it would only take an injury to one to leave us short; Washington will still play a role when fit but alongside one of the other two, while Schwartz has to wait and see if he gets a chance). 

Saturday will no doubt be a good test of our progression, but come on, it’s Peterborough for crying out loud. Congratulations to them on their prospective promotion but we’re not exactly talking European Super League contenders. After all, after last night we do have in common with them that we’ve both been beaten at home by Gillingham.

Message Sent

While the rest of the footballing world was still shaking its head in disbelief that a European superleague could possibly omit Charlton, we embarked on another game that could reasonably be described as ‘must win’, given our situation and other games in our final six, while keeping fingers crossed that others would screw up: Portsmouth at Swindon (they did), Blackpool at Rochdale (they did too), and Lincoln at Burton (they didn’t), even Oxford at Wimbledon (they did). After all, Plymouth may have been in 16th place but looked pretty comfortable, surely with nothing other than a bit of pride to play for, while we knew that all we needed to do was win our final six games and we could not be denied a play-off spot. And tonight we did what we had to. 

Whether Adkins had any significant decisions on team selection tonight seemed to depend on whether any of Maatsen, Washington or Aneke would be available. In the event just one was, Aneke, who was among the subs, but the starting XI saw two changes. Inniss was given a rest, with Famewo coming in to partner Pearce (and Gunter and Oshilaja the back-up on the bench), while Watson started instead of Pratley, perhaps on the back of his display when he came on as a sub. It looked like the same 4-5-1/4-3-3 formation with Millar and Jaiyesimi either side of Stockley and Forster-Caskey and Gilbey making up the midfield. There was a further change on the bench with Morgan named instead of Schwartz, giving us more options than on Saturday.

As on Saturday we started sluggishly. Plymouth rattled up six corners in the first 15 minutes, had some dangerous positions, a cross well cut out by Watson, a shot deflected, an Amos save, and a low cross which somehow evaded everyone. We did have a Forster-Caskey shot which curled wide but by and large we struggled to hold the ball, especially with Stockley curiously getting regularly beaten in the air. Plymouth passed the ball better than us and had us on the back foot.

But that was the first 15 minutes. And just as on Saturday the game changed after that. We began to look more dangerous, Forster-Caskey helped to set up Jaiyesimi, whose shot was well saved, and we might well have had a penalty as a Gilbey shot from the edge of the area clearly hit the raised arm of a defender. No matter as on 25 minutes we were ahead. Millar drove past his marker on the left and fired in a low cross. Their keeper managed to push it out but Forster-Caskey bent his neck and headed it back goalward. Their defender looked as though he was going to keep it out with his hands but perhaps thought better of it (penalty and a red card or the goal and a yellow) and in it went.

The lead was nearly extended later in the half as Purrington ran on to a loose ball on the left side and fired in a cross, one which Stockley just failed to connect with. But after Jaiyesimi had almost played in their guy with an ill-conceived back pass, only rescued by Watson, we did score again before the break. Forster-Caskey and Matthews worked it down the right and Matthews delivered an excellent cross, one which was met low down from close range by Stockley, who’d left his marker for dead.

At the break we were looking good, despite the start to the game. Just felt that Plymouth would surely be getting a rollocking and look to get back into it early in the second. And they very nearly did. Their guy got into the box and checked inside, goal looked gaping but he hit his shot low and Amos made the save. To add insult to injury we immediately went down the other end, Millar has a shot which is blocked but then hits their defender and goes in. Instead of 1-2 it was 0-3 and probably game over.

In case there was any doubt, a couple of minutes later and it was four. We attacked down the right side and for some reason all their defenders were drawn to that side, leaving acres of space. This was spotted, the ball chipped over them, and Gilbey with all the time he might have wanted swept it home. Before the hour was up we’d scored again. Also down the right side, Jaiyesimi cross and Stockley cleverly dummied it, allowing it to run through to Millar who scored.

That was the cue for Gunter to replace Matthews and not long after for Shinnie and Morgan to come on for Gilbey and Jaiyesimi. And quite frankly now it was only a case of whether there would be a consolation or two for Plymouth as we not surprisingly rather took the foot off the gas. More changes saw Aneke and Pratley on for Stockley and Forster-Caskey; and just when everyone was getting ready for the final whistle Pratley saw space inside and chipped it to Aneke, who controlled it and stabbed it home. Still a couple of minutes left to beat the 0-6 at Barnsley (I was there) and remarkably Aneke missed a glorious chance to make it seven in stoppage time, through on the keeper but shooting just wide.

With the other results tonight we are sitting nicely in sixth place with five games to go. Technically we can now afford to win only four of those five to be sure of a play-off place, but we know it’s still going to be tough, with Peterborough, Lincoln and Hull still to play. No matter, tonight (and tomorrow) we enjoy it, hope the players do too because they deserved it.

Player Ratings:

Amos – 9/10. Another important contribution to prevent us going behind in that early phase; basically did everything asked of him.

Matthews – 8/10. Fine performance, Curbs attributed our lead at half-time to the defence and that was about right.

Pearce – 8/10. Important interceptions and tackles, didn’t let the change of partner unsettle him.

Famewo – 8/10. Slotted back in seamlessly, not noticed much but that was a good sign.

Purrington – 8/10. Also a good game as after the opening spell our defence was on top.

Gilbey – 7/10. Decent game and took his chance well.

Watson – 8/10. A couple of key interventions to prevent them scoring, shored things up in front of the defence. Tough call after Saturday and today whether he or Pratley starts.

Forster-Caskey – 8/10. Pretty effective all round, including his goal.

Jaiyesimi – 7/10. Not everything came off but still looked lively.

Millar – 8/10. He had the beating of them on the left side all night, scored one, big role in our first.

Stockley – 7/10. Did well for his goal but did miss another and was unusually less effectively than usual in the air outside the box.

Subs:

Not fair to give them marks as they all came on after the game was won.

One Gained Or Two Dropped?

Having beaten Doncaster and Sunderland away from home, of course thoughts were turning to a banana skin today, at The Valley against a team seemingly out of sorts and slipping out of the play-off picture. We managed to avoid that, but it proved to be a tough afternoon, a game in which both sides fashioned decent positions but failed to turn them into clear-cut chances. Nobody broke the deadlock. We can justifiably claim that, especially if you ignore the first 15 minutes, we had the greater number of attempts on goal and might have been given the verdict on points. But that doesn’t count for anything at this stage of the season.

The team saw one enforced changed, with Maatsen not making it, joining Washington and Aneke on the injured list. With Millar in to replace him, it looked like the same formation: 4-5-1 or 4-3-3. In front of Amos, Inniss and Pearce flanked by Matthews and Purrington. Pratley holding the fort with Forster-Caskey and Gilbey for company, then Millar and Jayesimi either side of Stockley up front. Only doubt was which sides the two wide men would operate on (proved to be Millar on the left and disappointingly they didn’t try mixing it up during the game), only concern was that with the injured trio options from the bench looked thin, only Shinnie and Watson in midfield and Schwartz up front, with nobody able to slot into a wide position if anything happened to Millar or Jayesimi (why not have Morgan on the bench instead of one of the three defenders?). Indeed, we ended up making just one change, Watson for Pratley, despite some tired legs towards the end, which underlined the lack of viable options.

If Ipswich were supposed to be out of sorts it seemed that nobody had told them at the start as in the first 15 minutes we barely got a kick. They were brighter from the off, their formation caused us problems, and they almost took the lead in the first minute as from a free kick drawn by a foul by Pearce a header required a blinding save from Amos, a shot from the rebound was cleared off the line then headed over for a corner. That was to be as close as Ipswich came to scoring through the game.

After 15 minutes I checked the BBC stats and they indicated 81% possession for Ipswich. But after that we did manage to get a foothold in the game, with some decent pressing winning the ball back and disrupting their play. By 30 minutes Ipswich’s possession stat was down to 65%. And around that time we did have our first real chance. A cross from the left was not claimed cleanly by their keeper and it fell to Stockley. He probably had more time to pick a spot but instead turned the ball towards what we hoped was an empty net only for it to be kicked off the line.

Millar was played in down the left, checked inside and the ball rolled for Pratley to take the shot only for it to be blocked. Ipswich did have a breakaway and a poor Inniss header was picked up and ended with a shot over the bar. Equally, before the break they might have had a player sent off. Their guy had already been booked and seemed to deliberately handle the ball, foul given but no second yellow. Instead the card came out for Jaiyesimi as we made a mess of a short free kick shortly before the break.

At half-time we knew we were in a tough game against decent opposition. We’d not played well enough to feel especially confident, too many set pieces and crosses in not precise enough, the wide men both failing to make a decisive contribution. But you felt that we were looking the stronger team and that if we could take the lead they might wilt. Alternatively, if they grabbed a goal and had something to defend we would struggle to turn it around, especially with the options from the bench looking so limited.

Neither was to happen. Plenty more hard work, half-chances, but no breakthrough goal. Inniss was making his presence felt from the set pieces but that only led to near misses, albeit with one a decent save from their keeper as his powerful header was deflected by Jaiyesimi. Millar was denied a good position has having turned their guy the referee made a poor call and gave a free kick against him, and around the hour we had a glorious situation. Pretty much a three on two as the ball was played into Forster-Caskey, with Millar and Stockley for company. We didn’t make the most of it, ended with a Millar shot comfortably saved.

Our one change was a like-for-like as Watson replaced Pratley, and as if to complete the similarity almost immediately picked up a yellow for a foul after a poor first touch. Ipswich did look dangerous at times but by and large it was us forcing the pace. A Forster-Caskey shot was only parried by their keeper but Stockley couldn’t get to the rebound first, then Millar teed up Forster-Caskey for a super curling effort which ended up just over the bar.

Into the final 10 minutes and another Inniss header from a corner was almost turned in by Stockley. The three minutes of stoppage time were disrupted by a little altercation as Inniss squared up to their guy, who collapsed holding his face. I hope he’s embarrassed when he looks at the replay. He should be. Still time right at the death for Gilbey to head wide from a free kick. But just wasn’t to be today.

By the end we’d managed to get up to 47% possession. More tellingly, we’d had 12 shots to their 5, six on target. On another day something goes in (or a defender hacks a clearance off the line into the roof of the net). But perhaps our situation was summed up by striving for a winner at home with one up front and the only forward on the bench not being introduced. Perhaps Adkins was fearful of disrupting the formation and conceding a late goal to turn a reasonable point into a real setback. But it’s hard to see Aneke or Washington not being used if they were available. We need them, and Maatsen, back.

Not sure as yet whether to focus on the positives or the negatives, we’ll only know at the end of the season if it was a point won or two dropped. The latter are Blackpool beating Sunderland and Lincoln winning a second in a row. That leaves a gap of five and six points (plus their better goal difference) between us Lincoln and Blackpool. The positive is of course Portsmouth losing at MK Dons. Two points behind them now with a game in hand. To be really upbeat, you could say that for the first time in quite a while it is all now in our own hands. If we win our final six games nobody can stop us being in the play-offs. But we know tough games lie ahead. To end on a positive, we would have taken two wins and a draw from the last three games. 

Player Ratings:

Amos – 8/10. Excellent save at the start and thereafter dealt with everything he had to. Quite a relief that he got up and continued after treatment in the second half.

Matthews – 7/10. Was seriously tested in that opening spell as a couple of times Ipswich carved us open on his side. But weathered that and went on to have a decent game.

Inniss – 7/10. Commanding again, just a pity that his ability to win headers from set pieces didn’t this week turn into goals.

Pearce – 7/10. Also a slightly shaky start but no problems after that, good game.

Purrington – 7/10. Saw more of him as an attacking threat in the second half, almost set some things up, no problems defensively.

Gilbey – 6/10. Less influential than against Sunderland, still made good runs and cropped up in dangerous positions.

Pratley – 6/10. No complaints, did his job. Even left it to Watson to pick up the yellow card.

Forster-Caskey – 6/10. Rather quiet first half, more prominent in the second but for once struggled to pick out the killer pass and his shots were just wide of the mark.

Jaiyesimi – 6/10. Disappointing first half, much more threatening in the second. Like others just a whisker away from a decisive contribution.

Stockley – 6/10. Did the job asked of him, just unable to convert the one good chance that came his way or any of the half-chances.

Millar – 6/10. A number of good contributions, especially in the second half. Just nothing that proved match-winning.

Subs:

Watson – 6/10. Fair enough.

 

No Grounds For Complacency

Ahead of our next cup final, think it’s worth updating the points-per-game and projected totals, just to put our position into context. We have, of late, got the results we needed to and we are for sure in the mix for a play-off place. We are still considered by the bookies not favourite to end in the top six, plenty of work still to be done. Starting tomorrow.

The midweek results were not bad for us, but they could have been better, largely because Lincoln won. Having been on a poor run of results and having had an enforced Covid-related break (including the postponement of our game against them), I was hoping they would be off the pace and fade away. They were after all the team in sixth place and our clearest target. Instead they trounced MK Dons 4-0. Others, most obviously Portsmouth, did come up short. Again, could have been worse.

Leaving aside the top three - for the record Hull are on course for 88/89 points and top spot, with Peterborough just behind on 87, Sunderland having fallen away to a projected 82 but still firmly cemented in third – Lincoln are now on course to amass 77/78 points and fourth spot, Blackpool 76/77 and fifth, with Portsmouth hanging on to sixth spot on 74/75. Our points-per-game – which had fallen as low as 1.419 at end-February – is now up to 1.590, giving a projected points total of 73 and seventh place. Others – including Lennie Lawrence it seems – have been flagging the 75 points total as the magical goal, but that number only gives you a decent chance of a play-off spot, doesn’t guarantee one.

The usual proviso: of course things are going to change with each round, still too many points up for grabs to draw any firm conclusions. But note that even if we beat Lincoln in our game that’s not sufficient to get us above them. One possible positive from Sunderland falling away from the top two is that – in an ideal world – Hull and Peterborough might be inclined to feel their job is done when we come to play them, rather than being in a three-way scrap for two automatic places. Probably wishful thinking.

One game at a time for sure. Absolutely no grounds for any complacency tomorrow just because Ipswich are on a poor run and were publicly criticised by their manager. Tomorrow’s game is pretty much last-chance saloon for them, they have to beat us. That could make them dangerous opponents.

I’ve been musing on whether we are benefiting from an ‘Adkins effect’, whether he’s just been lucky – or both (and if luck was good enough for Napoleon it’s good enough for me). It would seem clear that the change of manager has revitalised what had probably become a stale environment (I didn’t want Bowyer to go not with any thoughts about promotion this season but on him being our best bet to go up next season).

I do think Adkins has had fortune on his side, primarily with the return of Inniss. We do not have another like him and quite clearly the defence is more comfortable with him as the central element. Injuries have I think also helped to make some of Adkins’ decisions for him. If Famewo had been fit, would he be partnering Inniss or would the captain Pearce have kept the shirt? And probably more important, Washington was on a roll when he got injured. Without him, and with Schwartz not a viable option to start, that really only left Stockley and Aneke. That perhaps forced Adkins into going for one up top. Once you have that in mind, you look to what elements you can bring to make that a productive formation. Now, with Chuks probably still sidelined for tomorrow, we have to hope and pray that Stockley continues to work his socks off and doesn’t pick up a knock.

Nevertheless, if someone had told me we’d be going with one up front, one either side of him, and a midfield three, I would have expected both Shinnie and Millar to have been in the starting X1. Adkins, perhaps coming in with an open mind and deciding on what he saw on the training ground, chose Gilbey over Shinnie and Jaiyesimi over Millar. Those were big calls and so far at least they’ve paid off, even to the extent of Gilbey starting to show us what we hoped he would when he joined. Tough on the other two, but that’s the way it goes – and they are of course both still in the thick of it, rather it’s been Morgan and Smith sidelined so far.

With Maddison’s problems in the news, discussion of Schwartz’s difficulties in adjusting to his new surroundings, and Gilbey’s resurgence, it has perhaps been sobering to reflect on how a footballer’s fortunes can change, and perhaps how little sympathy is given to their troubles when things are not going well. Being paid handsomely doesn’t mean everything else is fine; and we do indeed live in strange times.

On a more upbeat note, belated congratulations to the club’s new fan adviser Lucy Bishop, and to Curbs for the well-deserved honour of having the East Stand renamed after him (I’d also like to congratulate those who won prizes in the streaming raffle but as I won nothing I’ll pass). Good of TS to respond to the campaign over the stand renaming, but perhaps now we can take up another similar cause. I think it would be great to have one of the urinals in The Valley renamed ‘the Duchatelet urinal’. As a fellow Addick pointed out, only problem would be the queue for that one.

Just A Massive Win

Nobody was in any doubt about the size of the task today, especially with Sunderland in as much need of the points as us. It felt rather like for the first time this season we were truly the underdogs, although in our favour was the knowledge that we had produced our best performances in tough circumstances away from home against promotion contenders: Portsmouth, Ipswich, Doncaster. And glory be that group now includes Sunderland with a massive win, sweetened by the failure of Lincoln, Portsmouth Ipswich and Doncaster to win home games.

Did we deserve the win? Perhaps yes, perhaps no, depends how you read the game and what you focus on. It was not the same sort of dogged display as against some others, incidents and chances were aplenty, for both teams. We led at the break thanks to outstanding Amos saves and their guy’s decision to hack the ball into the roof of his own net rather than clear. Sure at times it was backs to the wall, Sunderland showed why they are fighting it out for automatic promotion, but everyone put in a massive shift and we could have added more goals to Gilbey’s second-half effort, either side of Sunderland’s one goal. A neutral would probably say a draw would have been a fair result, but a late leveller would have been cruel. And it didn’t happen, we got the points, who cares?

There was no surprise to hear that the team was unchanged from Doncaster, meaning a repeat of the 4-3-3/4-5-1 set-up with Maatsen and Jaiyesimi either side of Stockley up front, Forster-Caskey and Gilbey flanking Pratley in central midfield, in front of a back four of Matthews, Inniss, Pearce and Purrington. The surprise was on the bench, with Aneke not appearing, apparently injured, Schwartz taking his place. With Washington still out, it did indicate a limitation of our options if we ended up having to chase the game (and no jokes please about playing with none up front if Schwartz came on).

We started the game well, looked up for the task, only for Sunderland to almost take the lead with their first real attack, a long ball finding their guy between defenders and he turned it goalwards. Really expected it to land in the net but it went just wide. A narrow escape. And the next one came not long after as Pratley badly blotted his copybook. He seemed to be caught in two minds what to do with the ball at his feet and ended up giving it away to their guy, who was in on goal. He tried a chip but Amos stuck out a big hand to block it.

Just after that it was us almost scoring as a free kick was floated in and their defender diverted it back past his keeper and against the post, followed by a decent shout for a penalty as Gilbey seemed to be taken out in the box, the ref unmoved. Still inside the first 20 minutes and a Sunderland cross from their left saw their guy get to it only for Amos to pull off another blinder, although it seems he tried to punch it into the net. Two more penalty shouts were to follow as Jaiyesimi turned in the box and seemed to be clipped, then Pratley took the ball off their guy, advanced into the area, and was about to shoot when their defender took his foot away (or got the ball, have to see a replay of that one). None of the appeals were stonewall, but you’d have thought the ref might have given one of them on the balance of probabilities.

No mater, on the half-hour we did take the lead, in curious circumstances. Jaiyesimi won a corner on the left and Inniss got his head to it. Seems the keeper smothered it but it ran loose on the goalline, only for their guy to slice the clearance and send it into the roof of the net. Probably has to go down as an own goal, unless replays indicate it had already crossed the line.

The rest of the first half saw another Amos save, another Charlton penalty appeal (this time Stockley challenged and indicated the ball hit a defender’s arm), but no more goals. At the break we were probably fortunate to be ahead, but there were enough chances and incidents at both ends for either side to have been in front. The abiding thought was, however, that it was going to be bloody hard to keep a clean sheet.

The first phase of the second half we did manage to keep pretty scrappy, defending well in the face of Sunderland possession and pressure but with few opportunities to get forward. We were already playing if not on the break then conservatively, with Stockley winning every ball in the air but that seldom resulting in us keeping hold of the ball.

That all changed just before the hour as we created a golden opportunity to get some breathing space. A Sunderland defender failed to cut out a ball down the line and Jaiyesimi had it in space, curled in a cross, and Stockley was all on his own about a yard from goal. It had to go in, but instead he seemed to try to guide it home and ended up heading it against a post and out. It was a bad miss and at the time we wondered if that would cost us.

Sunderland reacted by making four substitutions, but whether or not as a result of their confusion we did indeed extend our lead. A throw on the right side was flicked on by Stockley and Gilbey made it his with a well-timed run. It was a poor first touch but he kept going and the second was much better as he fired home from close range. Sunderland might see it as a bad goal to give away, for us it seemed to bring victory close to hand. But still at least another 30 minutes left.

Millar came on for Maatsen, who picked up a knock, taking up his position on the left and Jaiyesimi switching to the right. And we coped with the next 15 minutes or so pretty well, might even have grabbed a third as poor defending let in Gilbey but his shot was well saved. Gunter came on for Jaiyesimi, with Matthews taking up a more advance position, although by now we were not surprisingly being penned back.

The game took a massive turn for the worse with about 15 minutes left as Sunderland pulled one back. A ball over the top looked like finding their guy. Amos came out for it but wasn’t going to get to it first. He did manage to block their forward’s effort, a second shot was also blocked, but when the ball came out the goal was open and at the third attempt a Sunderland guy cleverly stooped to head it into an unguarded net. Should Amos have come for it? Should defenders have got back on the line once it was clear he was coming out? Couldn’t have turned out any worse, now there was going to be a very nailbiting end to the game.

With hindsight we actually saw out the final 15 minutes and five of added time without major alarm, we might even have scored a third on the break, but of course it didn’t seem so comfortable at the time. I remember cheering when Purrington won a goal kick. Sunderland had a final free kick, but when that was cleared and Millar headed for the corner flag the game was up.

Just how massive a win this proves to be will only become clear at the end of the season. Not going to tempt fate by suggesting Sunderland’s dismay at the end was down to ‘surely not them again at Wembley’. To say that there are more tough tests to come is an understatement, with Ipswich up next. But there’s no doubt that this win puts us right in the play-off mix, a position which didn’t look likely at the end of March when we failed to beat Wimbledon. So we sit back and watch another round of games for others on Tuesday and prepare for the weekend. More of the same please.

Player Ratings:

Amos – 8/10. Almost a perfect performance, tremendous saves in the first half, just that decision to come out for a ball he couldn’t gather. Still leaves him, for me, as man of the match.

Matthews – 7/10. Decent enough game, especially after a tough opening period when Sunderland seemed to be targeting his side.

Innis – 8/10. Another towering performance against good opposition. Hope he gets credited with the goal.

Pearce – 8/10. Captain’s performance, up to and including the time-wasting injuries.

Purrington – 7/10. No complaints, played his part in what was overall a solid defensive display.

Forster-Caskey – 7/10. Put in a shift, as against Doncaster not much opportunity to shine on the ball.

Pratley – 6/10. Has to lose a mark for the early error which but for Amos would have gifted Sunderland the lead. The game would have been very different if they’d scored then. Otherwise decent.

Gilbey – 8/10. When he came back in this role ahead of Shinnie it was a surprise, but today he showed signs of what he can do, took his goal well and might have notched another.

Jaiyesimi – 7/10. Thought he started poorly but very much grew into the game as it progressed, some great stuff including the cross which Stockley should have buried.

Stockley – 7/10. Harsh mark for a guy who ran his socks off, won everything in the air (to the extent that, as Steve Brown pointed out, three centre-backs gave up competing against him), but the miss was a bad one and might have cost us.

Maatsen – 7/10. Played his part at both ends of the pitch.

Subs:

Millar – 6/10. Didn’t always choose the best option to relieve the pressure and hit them on the break.

Gunter – 6/10. Thought he was absent from his position a few times late in the game, with Matthews having to cover.

 

Plenty Of Positives, Mostly The Points

One advantage of the season coming down to the wire is that now ahead of games – especially this one – all the permutations and options can be put to one side. Today was pretty much must-win, a draw would have kept us hanging on but with another game less to close the gap. While we hoped the performance would indicate a positive impact from the arrival of Adkins, if we fluked one in the last minute to secure an undeserved victory that would be just fine. In the event it didn’t come to that, we scored early and thereafter restricted Doncaster to according to my count just three good opportunities (albeit all the result of poor defending), none of which they took. Overall it was disciplined, hard-working and effective, and we won a game of few clear-cut chances. Just what the doctor ordered.

The team showed six changes from the Wimbledon game, with some surprises, in what proved to be a 4-3-3 (or 4-5-1 when out of possession). There was the welcome return of Inniss, who it seemed only needed a shortened run-out in a friendly to be back in the team, alongside Pearce in the centre, with Famewo apparently injured. Matthews was fit again and came in to start, with Purrington at left-back. The midfield three saw Pratley holding the fort flanked by Forster-Caskey and another returnee, Gilbey, who got the nod over Shinnie. Stockley operated as pretty much a lone striker (with Washington still injured and Schwartz not making the bench), with Jaiyesimi to the left and Maasten to the right. It suggested flexibility, provided the two wider players could both support Stockley and get behind the ball when we lost it.

I missed the first 10 minutes (one of the joys of doing work for a French company is a restricted Easter break) and just as I’d settled in we took the lead, in a fashion which highlighted the potential benefits of the formation. Amos kicked long, Stockley flicked it on, Jaiyesimi then won a header to move it into the box, where Maatsen – who’d already caused problems chasing down a back pass – stole in, showed good strength to hold off the defender, and shot into the net.

We nearly gave away that lead just a few minutes later, with a poor piece of defending. A ball in was covered by three Charlton defenders, who all left it to each other, allowing it to run to an unmarked Bogle. His shot wasn’t bad but Amos stuck out a foot and managed to block it. Doncaster didn’t know it at the time, but that was probably the closest they would come to drawing level.

On the half-hours we had defensive error number two leading to Doncaster chance number two. Matthews did well to break up an attack, but hemmed in by the goalline with no easy escape route he chose to backheel the ball into the box, assuming presumably that the odds favoured it going to a colleague. It didn’t, but their surprised guy was only able to put in a weak shot easily saved by Amos.

If either of those two screw-ups had produced a Doncaster equaliser the game would have been very different. As it was, apart from the errors we were generally comfortable. Doncaster had plenty of possession but found it hard to get to or behind our back line, with Forster-Caskey and Pratley breaking up most attacks and Inniss and Pearce mopping up what came their way. We didn’t have many chances, although shortly before the break Gilbey might have done better when a Jaiyesimi cross from the left found him in the box. Perhaps surprised it reached him he tried to control it and it ran away from him.

At the break we looked as though our system was working well to frustrate them, as long as the errors were kept to a minimum, and you felt that if we could concoct a second goal that would probably be enough to secure the points. But clearly a lot of work still to be done.

Indeed, Doncaster started the second half with a period of sustained pressure, which culminated in Bogle winning a free kick on the edge of the area for a touch by Forster-Caskey, despite him clubbing him in the face. It was in a dangerous position, just the left side of the box, but fortunately the resulting shot was into the wall and cleared.

Back up the other end and for a moment we thought we had that second goal. A corner swung in and Stockley heads it goalwards, seemingly into the net. But you could guess from the rather uncertain celebrations there was a problem and the replays showed that the header had been deflected in by Jaiyesimi from an offside position. Pains me to say it but no question the officials got that one right (and by and large they had a pretty good game). Has to be said that without the deflection the keeper would probably have comfortably saved Stockley’s effort.

Going into the final 30 we were doing an even better job than before of demoralising Doncaster, who seemed at times to be losing heart. The game was getting rather stop-start, with a Doncaster defender sparking a fracas with Stockley (both ended up seeing yellow) followed by a long head injury break after Stockley collided with their guy (who eventually went off). We made our first change, Millar coming on for Jaiyesimi down the left, after which Purrington picked up a yellow for a mistimed challenge.

Doncaster made changes themselves, bringing on fresh legs, and there were moments when they threatened. But the third chance they had came from a corner, when inexplicably three of theirs were left to sort it out among themselves who would put in a header. Thankfully they got in each other’s way and the end result was harmless. Really don’t know what went wrong with that one.

And that, despite seven minutes of stoppage time, proved to be that. Aneke came on for a tiring Stockley, then at the death Gunter and Shinnie for Maatsen and Gilbey. We managed to play out the game and took the points.

There were plenty of positives, even though the performance could not be described as pretty (by and large we were happy to concede control of midfield and focus on getting up in support of Stockley while keeping it tight at the back). Sky make Forster-Caskey man of the match, and he did have a very good game, less so for what he did with the ball than his work without it. But for me it had to be Inniss. I wondered if we could get 90 minutes from a guy out for so long, but he pretty much strolled through it. A fellow Addick commented that he makes decisions and sticks to them, which summed it up. On occasions the right thing to do was send the ball into Row Z and that’s what he did. And having that immovable presence seemed to help others to play around him. The crowning glory was his ability to shove Bogle over outside the box and get away with it.

Now we sit back and watch the other scores (at the time of writing we’d dropped back from fifth to seventh), not just today but now on Monday also given the Lincoln postponement. We’ve done what we needed to today, let the chips fall where they may and we take stock on Tuesday.

Player Ratings:

Amos – 8/10. Was called on to make one decent save and delivered, as well as dealing decisively with some balls into the box.

Matthews – 6/10. Have to deduct a mark for the daft backheel. Could easily have cost us a goal. Otherwise fine.

Pearce – 8/10. Determined, committed, and put in some vital interceptions. Would have been culpable in the other two Doncaster chances but hard to pin the blame for those.

Inniss – 9/10. Outstanding, lasted the full game and looked assured, unruffled. Also a threat from corners.

Purrington – 7/10. Decent enough game.

Gilbey – 7/10. Not an easy game for our central midfielders as we didn’t have that much possession, probably should have scored, otherwise a promising display on his return.

Pratley – 7/10. Did the hard graft well and didn’t get involved in any unnecessary altercations. Not even a yellow.

Forster-Caskey – 8/10. Worked tirelessly and effectively, excellent game.

Jaiyesimi – 7/10. Thought it was probably his best game for us so far, worked well and produced some dangerous moments; also seemed stronger on the ball than before.

Stockley – 7/10. Put in a real shift, was out on his legs by the time he was substituted. Hard task to compete on his own but did it well.

Maatsen – 7/10. Did seem to fade in the second half but started very brightly, took his goal well.

Subs:

Millar – 6/10. With us playing on the break he did find himself in good positions and really didn’t make the most of them.

Aneke – 7/10. No real opportunity to deliver a decisive contribution but no complaints.

Shinnie/Gunter – Not on long enough for scores.